Forex news for NY trading on April 5, 2019

In other markets:

  • Spot gold, down $-.79 or -0.06% at $1291.48
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading up $1.15 or 1.85% at $63.25
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading at $160 and $5016. The digital currency soared by nearly $1000 on April 2 from $4127 to $5122 and extended the run to $5345. It came off yesterday but the lows remain above the exchanges 200 day moving average of $4594.54. Stay above in the new week would keep the bulls/buyers in control.

In the US and European stock markets today, most of the major indices moved higher. Looking at the ranges and changes chart below, the only index lower on the day was a Spanish ibex (-0.25%). The largest gainer, was the UK FTSE despite the uncertainty from Brexit. The GBP moved lower and that has the Pavlovian reaction of buying stocks in the UK of late. In the US, the NASDAQ was the biggest gainer at 0.59%. The Dow stocks lagged behind at +0.15%

the US and European major indices were mostly higher in trading on Friday. The only exception was the Spanish ibex

For the week, the Shanghai composite rose by 8.4% which made it the biggest gainer for the week. The Australian S&P/ASX index was the laggard, basically ending the week flat. In Europe, the German DAX was the largest gainer and 4.2%. It was helped by stronger PMI/ISM data midweek. In the US, the NASDAQ index rose by 2.71%. The S&P rose by 2.06% and the Dow rose by 1.91%.

The % changes of the major stock indices for the week.

In the US debt market, the 2 year yield squeaked out a small rise, The 10 year fell by -1.6 bps near the close. For the 10 year this week, the yield moved from a last Friday close of 2.41% to a high of 2.541% today before settling at 2.497%.

The US yields were mostly lower today, but rose for the week.

In the European benchmark 10 year notes, German and UK yields were higher, but France, Spain, Italy and Portugal were lower. The German 10 year yield closed the week just above 0.0% at 0.007%

The benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session mixed in Europe today

Today, the market was little changed coming into the NY session in preparation for the release of the pivotal US and Canada jobs reports.

Recall from a month ago, the US report was much weaker than expected at +20K. The expectation was for a rise of 177K. The unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% and hourly earnings for the month were expected to rise by 0.3% MoM and 3.4% YoY.

The actual numbers showed mixed results

  • non farm payroll rose by a greater than expected 196K with the prior month revised modestly higher by 14K. Stronger.
  • The employment remained unchanged at 3.8% as per your expectations. Neutral.
  • The hourly wages were lower on a MoM and YoY basis. For the month, wages rose by 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. For the YoY, the number came in at 3.2% versus 3.4% expected. Weaker.

In other data,

  • manufacturing jobs fell by -6k vs +10K estimate. Weaker.
  • labor force participation rate fell to 63% from 63.2%. Weaker.
  • underemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.3%. Neutral

The sum was mixed and the USD moved modestly higher from the pre-data levels at the close.

Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currency pairs (for a comparison of the numbers before the report, CLICK HERE). The USD is indeed the strongest on the day but it did not run away. The NZD was the weakest followed by the GBP.

T he percentage changes of the major currency pairs shows the US dollar was the strongest will be New Zealand dollar was the weakest

You can see the lack of conviction by looking at the trading ranges for the day. The EURUSD could only must 36 pips. THe USDJPY and USDCHF were lower at 24 and 28 pips respectively. The GBPUSD (and GBP crosses) were the only decent movers, but their declines retraced into the close.

What is even more "non-trending" for a pair like the EURUSD, is that it's trading range for the week was only 71 pips. That was the lowest range for the pair since April 20, 2014 when the range was 70 pips.

IF you traded the EURUSD this week, not a lot of trending. However, going into next week, be on the lookout for a more trending market. If the price is to go higher, watch the 200 hour MA for clues. That MA comes in at 1.12318. The price did move above the level on the release of the data, but moved back below and -for the most part - stayed below. On the downside, getting and staying below 1.1200 and then the low for the week at 1.1183 and the low for the year at 1.1174 will be the triggers for more selling.

As mentioned, the US employment report was not the only jobs report in town today. Canada employment showed a slowing of there strong job gains seen over the prior 6 months where 220K jobs were added (average of 36.7K). This month -7.2K jobs were lost. With small declines in part time (-0.9K) and full time (-6.4K). The Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% and hourly wages rose by 2.3% YoY (up from 2.2% last month).

For the USDCAD, the price did move higher (weaker CAD) but the gains were somewhat tempered by higher oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair closed above the 200 hour MA at 1.33671. That level will be a barometer for bulls and bears at the start of the new trading week.

For other pairs technically:

  • The NZDUSD is closing just below its 200 day MA at 0.67304. Stay below on Monday will be more bearish. Move above, and there could be some short covering.
  • The AUDUSD is closing right around its 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.7102-04 area. It will be the barometer for the bulls and bears for that pair on Monday.
  • The USDJPY extended the range for the day and week off the release of the jobs report but only by 2 measly pips. The sell off was not that great though (the price just waffled). There is a trend line at 111.61. Get below that along with the 100 hour MA comes in at 111.48 AND 200 day MA at 111.47, and the sellers will be taking more control.

That is about it for the day. I wish you all a great, safe, joyous weekend. Thank you for your support.