Forex news for NY trading on December 5, 2018.

In other markets:

  • Spot gold $-1.20 or 10.10% at $1237.25
  • WTI crude oil futures $-.26 or -0.53% at $52.97
  • Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading down $183.15 at $3717.59. The low reached $3660 today and that was right at a lower trend line on the hourly chart. Holding that level gives dip buyers a level to lean against but a move above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at $3963 and $4013 respectively are needed for more bullish bias
  • The US stock market was closed in honor of the Washington memorial service for Pres. H.W. Bush, but the futures markets did imply modest gains (they closed at 9:30 AM ET. The Dow futures rose 110 points (remember the Dow fell 800 points on Tuesday). The S&P futures rose 15.50 points (it fell -90 points yesterday).
  • The bond market also took a breather from trading today after flattening dramatically in trading yesterday. The 2-10 year spread closed yesterday at 11.89 basis points. Yesterday the closing yields were: 2 year, 2.7947%. 5 year 2.7871%. 10 year 2.9136%. 30 year 3.1727%

The stock markets and bond markets were closed today as were government offices in Washington, DC due to the memorial services for former President George H.W. Bush.

As a result, economic data originally scheduled was also pushed up to Thursday including the ADP employment report, That report - along with the Challenger job cuts, US and Canada Trade balance, 3Q US Non-Farm productivity, initial jobless claims, Services PMI and ISM Non-manufacturing PMI, Factory orders and crude oil inventories will all be released tomorrow. In addition, Fed's Bostic, William's and Powell are all scheduled to speak, and OPEC will meet and are expected to cut production. All that is ahead of the US and Canada employment reports on Friday. That's a mouthful of stuff.

The forex market was open today and the GBP was the strongest as it moves up and down ahead of the Brexit Parliamentary vote next week. The AUD is the weakest as GDP below expectations got that pair running lower in trading today.

The CAD was just behind the AUD as the weakest. The one big event of the day was the BOC decision. They kept rates unchanged but said things such as:

  • Data show economy has less momentum going into Q4
  • Activity in energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected
  • Expect CPI to ease more than forecast
  • There is more room for non-inflationary growth

That helped to push the USDCAD to the highest level for the year (above the end of June high of 1.3385). However, the price could not breach a natural resistance level of 1.3400 (high reached 1.3398), and the price rotated back lower into the close (at 1.33552). Getting back above the old high at 1.3385 will be eyed in the new trading day.

The AUDUSD also trended (to the downside). Technically it fell below its 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.73307 and 0.7292 respectively, closing near 0.7270. The 200 hour MA (say up to 0.7300) is risk for short in the new day.

The other currency pair, the NZDUSD also fell, but at a slower pace. It fell below it's 100 hour MA at 0.69083. That level will be close risk in the new day (trading at 0.6895 at the close). IF there is more selling, the 0.6853-60 area is home to the 200 hour MA, the 200 day MA and the 50% of the move up from the November 23 low.

Other pairs like the EURUSD and CHF were all over the map today with up and volatility. For the USDJPY, the 113.14-177 has been a barometer for bulls and bears. Today the price moved above that key area but has additional resistance at the 100 hour MA at 113.276 and the 200 hour MA at 113.38.