Forex news for New York trading on March 8, 2016:

  • Clinton and Trump hold large polling leads in today's Michigan primaries
  • BOE's Weale: Jan, Feb saw speculative selloff in markets
  • BOE's Weale says they could cut rates and re-start QE if needed
  • Saudi Aramco oil output capacity now 12 mbpd, CEO says
  • Fed's Brainard donated $750 to Hilary Clinton
  • Iran cuts North West European oil discount
  • Spain's de Guindos trots out the excuses amid political mess
  • BOE hike pushed back to 2017 in latest Reuters poll
  • Canada Jan building permits -9.8% vs -2.3% expected
  • Canada housing starts Feb +212.6k vs +180k exp

Markets:

  • Gold down $6 to $1261
  • S&P 500 down 22 points to 1979
  • US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 2.63%
  • WTI crude oil down $1.65 to $36.25
  • JPY leads, CAD lags

The moment the Chinese trade numbers crossed the wires, it began to look like it could be a rougher day for risk trades. The S&P 500 had been riding a five day winning streak but with exports falling 20.6% y/y, there was a recipe for trouble.

USD/JPY started US trading at 113.00 and slid down to 112.40 before finishing near 112.64. There was no data or headline-grabbing news so it was all flows and sentiment.

EUR/USD started at 1.1020 and caught an early bid up to 1.1058 then slipped down to a session low at 1.0992 before finishing at 1.1010. The market is constrained ahead of the ECB on Thursday but there is plenty of chatter and recommendations for shorts.

GBP/USD started at 1.4212 and it finishes there. In between it slipped down to 1.4170 then bounced to 1.4240. Carney was grilled over his comments on the negative impacts of a Brexit and Weale floated some dovish and hawkish lines but resolved that the next move is likely to be up in rates.

USD/CAD was the big directional mover as it rallied to 1.3420 from 1.3330. The housing data was mixed but oil was the driver. The Bank of Canada decision is tomorrow but Poloz is expected to play a game of wait-in-see at least until after the government budget later this month.

AUD/USD was resilient given the circumstances. It ranged in a 0.7430 to 0.7470 range, trying the top and bottom of the range twice.