• US weekly jobless claims rise 9,000 to 429,000; larger than expected
  • Greek opposition leader: Austerity program needs corrective measures
  • IEA holds emergency press conference to announce 60 mln barrel release from strategic reserves of member states. US to release 30 mln barrels from SPR over next month; Oil falls below $90 intraday; closes at $91.80
  • Gold falls over $30, falls to $1515 intraday on reports of hedge fund position liquidation
  • European Banking Authority: Stress test parameters have been adjusted to reflect market developments
  • US new home sales fall 2.1% in May; better than forecast
  • US budget talks reach an impasse; Obama and House and Senate leaders to resume talks personally
  • ECB funding for Greek banks rose in May to EUR 97.5 bln end-May from EUR 86.8 bln end-April
  • Moody’s puts Italian banks on review for downgrade after similar action on sovereign debt last Friday
  • Juncker: All conditions must be met by Greece to earn loan disbursement
  • PM Papandreou: This is a fight for Greece and the Greek people
  • Greece reaches deal with Troika on 5-year 28 bln austerity plan; must be approved by Parliament
  • S&P falls over 2% intraday, closes down only 0.3%
  • US 10-year note yield falls 7 bp to 2.91%

This much we have learned from recent price action: Selling EUR/USD on weakness can be hazardous to your health.

We plunged as low as 1.4125 in US trade this morning with the market in a full-fledged panic about Greece, global growth and the fallout from the surprising decision of the IEA to release stocks of oil onto the market more than $20 below recent highs.

EUR/USD bounces were capped initially around 1.4200 but we blasted higher after Reuters reported that the Troika and Greece had struck a deal on the structure of the EUR 28 bln 5-year austerity package that is a precondition to the IMF releasing their next aid tranche in early July. The agreement was not unexpected but someone bought the market as though it were the announcement of a Greek budgetsurplus. Why, I don’t know, but we end the day near NY session highs, grinding stale shorts into dust, again.1.4125/1.4264 was the range.

Cable was crushed with EUR/USD this morning, triggering all manner of stops from recent buyers on dips. We fell to 1.5940 before rebounding above 1.6000 at the close. We end at 1.6009.

EUR/CHF fell to a fresh record low of 1.1847 as panic gripped the market during the US morning. As equities recovered and the dollar lost ground later in the day, EUR/CHF recovered to 1.1955. A close above the old record low of 1.1946 should be allow the few remaining EUR/CHF longs to breath a sigh of relief.

AUD/USD got a well-deserved beating intraday

;)

but rebounded dramatically late in the afternoon on the risk reversal. 1.0457 was the low, followed by a rebound high of 1.0531.

Lotsa luck!