Traders are trying to navigate through the upcoming week without getting too badly burned awaiting the results of the European stress tests. Germany’s Hypo Real Estate, a state-owned bank since the early days of the global financial crisis in October 2008, looks to be the first casualty of the stress tests, with sourced telling Bloomberg that the bank has failed the test. Already state-owned, it is a very convenient institution to throw to the wolves. If we are lucky, others will be sacrificed during the week so we do not have to wait for a Friday afternoon data dump.

EUR/USD traded in a 1.2932/85 range during the New York session amid reports of selling from an Asian central bank on strength. Similar names were dip buyers in Europe, especially below 1.2900, traders said.

Cable slipped back below the downtrend it broke above late last week, combined with extremely bullish price action in EUR/GBP, the pound was under pressure for much of the session. Cable fell as low as 1.5204 and ends the day at 1.5235.

USD/JPY was boosted by reports of Kampo buying overnight as well as talk that the BOJ may respond the JPY strength if it persists for several months. Consider the WSJ article a warning shot from the Japanese authorities. 86.64/87.16 was the US range with a closing price of 86.85.

CAD and AUD were a mixed bag today. The market expects a 25 bp hike from the BOC tomorrow but will be very keen to hear the Bank’s forward looking statements. Recent Canadian data, aside from the blow-out employment report, suggest the BOC need not hurry to hike.

AUD held in a broad consolidation, finding support at 0.8625/35 after recent stalls just above 0.8850. A sustained break of 0.8625 opens the way for a slide into the low 0.84s.