By Stephen Sandelius
PARIS (MNI) – Though all polls point to a victory for Socialist
candidate Francois Hollande in the French presidential elections, some
surprises cannot be ruled out.
At first glance, the first round of voting on Sunday looks pretty
predictable, with Hollande and incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy splitting a
majority of the votes and the more radical candidates collecting about a
third. The 10-point lead both heavy-weights enjoy over their rivals
looks solid enough to assure their qualification for the run-off ballot
on May 6.
Yet the unchanged poll rankings over the past weeks — rattled
only by the advance of Jean-Luc Melenchon on the left wing as a rival to
Marine Le Pen on the right for third place — mask considerable
volatility beneath the surface.
Pollsters estimate that around half the voters have either switched
preferences in the past six months or changed their decision whether or
not to vote at all. “Behind the relative stability of the large masses,
there is thus vibrant movement,” says political analyst Pascal
Perrineau.
Moreover, close to a third of electorate have yet to make a
definitive choice, pollsters say. Add in the risk of high abstention, as
many families will be traveling during the school vacations, and the
ingredients for an upset begin to mount.
Finally, a significant lead by Sarkozy in the first round could
lend his flagging campaign some momentum. The scores of runners-up may
also influence the outcome of the second round. A strong showing on
either fringe could sway a mainstream candidate in that direction at the
cost of support from the 10% of voters now backing the centrist Francois
Bayrou.
On the other hand, even if a growing number of voters claim not to
belong to either of the main camps on the right or left, only one in
five has swung from one to the other over the past six months, the
pollsters reckon.
Many of these floating voters are strategists who decide according
to the ranking of the candidates. Much of Melenchon’s recent support,
for example, has come from voters who prefer to “send a message” to
Hollande in the first round, provided they are sure he will not be
evicted from the run-off — the fate of Socialist Prime Minister Lionel
Jospin in 2002.
Against the background of the economic crisis, two related themes
which have colored much of the campaign — the unpopularity of the
incumbent and a yearning for protection from globalization — will no
doubt continue to play a major role as the race continues.
Sarkozy’s flamboyant life-style and the hobnobing with celebrities
that tarnished his image at the outset of his mandate might not have
left such a deep impression on public opinion if his fiscal reforms were
not perceived a favors for the rich. The ravages of the recession and
the ensuing cutbacks in public services have made the public even less
forgiving.
The president’s record-low popularity has tempted his opponents to
fuel their campaigns largely with attacks on his policies and
personality. This has particularly been the case for Hollande, who has
successfully surfed the “anti-Sarkozy” wave since the debacle of
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, promoting himself as a “normal” candidate who
will unite the country under the banner of “Change Now”.
After half-hearted attempts at public repentance, Sarkozy has
unraveled some of his previous tax breaks and has pledged to prohibit
exorbitant pensions and golden parachutes of top executives and require
that salaries and perks of top CEOs be determined by shareholders rather
than the board of directors. Posing as “candidate of people” ready to
take on the country’s elites, he has also toughened his stance on
immigration and crime in hopes of siphoning off support for Le Pen.
While the platforms of the mainstream candidates reflect their
commitment to reduce public deficits and debt, the need for fiscal
consolidation has not dominated the campaign as much as one might
expect, despite Bayrou’s insistent attacks on the policy errors of his
adversaries. For Melenchon and Le Pen, the solution is
simply to let the central bank finance deficits at cheap rates.
The French are in fact worried about the financial situation but
find the detailed measures proposed by the candidates too technical,
pollsters say. Besides, budget austerity is hardly what campaign dreams
are made of, say the spin doctors.
The economic crisis has only accentuated widespread anxiety that
the country’s social system is under attack from external forces.
Focused on the Brussels bureaucracy in the past decade, these fears now
extend to international environment in general. The specter of the
Polish plumber has been replaced by the Chinese factory worker. Whereas
five years ago most French expected globalization to benefit all
countries, they now see mainly emerging economies profiting — and
France already out of the race.
Sarkozy has vaunted his personal role as fearless captain at the
helm of the nation’s ship in high seas and promises now to lead the
charge on ECB to bolster economic growth and lower the euro exchange
rate. Hollande’s policies, he warns, would transform France into another
Greece. A nasty turn to the debt crisis might well improve his chances
for re-election.
Even the most European of the leading candidates, Bayrou, has not
resisted the temptation of protectionist policies with the motto “Buy
French” that gave him a brief boost in polls at the start of the year.
Melenchon proposes “selective tariff shield” of ecological and social
tariffs at the EU level or in France. For Le Pen, the solution is to
pull France out of monetary union, impose a 3% tariff on imports and
throttle immigration.
Traditionally opposed to the protectionist leanings on the left of
his party, Hollande has nonetheless called for a fair trade policy at
the EU level that would impose rules of reciprocity in the social
and environmental sphere and for an offensive strategy of “economic
patriotism” to hinder the transfer of domestic production abroad. The
primary protection he promises at home is against cutbacks in social
services and education.
All polls of voters’ intentions for the run-off give Hollande a
comfortable lead over Sarkozy ranging from 6 to 16 percentage points.
Pollsters expect four out of five of Melenchon’s supporters and a good
third of Bayrou’s voters to swing to Hollande. Sarkozy would garner a
less than a third of Bayrou’s electorate and nearly half of Le Pen’s.
–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]
