The price broke above the 200 hour MA(green line) /back above the underside of the trend line at the 1.5536 area and stayed above. The high is now being taken out at the 1.5557 level and triggered some stops (up to 1.5571). A full retracement of the weeks range takes the price up to 1.55768. We are almost there.
Looking at the daily chart, there is an intesection of the a downward sloping trend line and the broken support trend line extending up from the June 1 low. That intersection comes in at 1.5606 area. It would be quite a surprise to get up to this level today. However it becomes a target for early next week.
The GBPUSD has a low to high trading range of 329 pips this month. The lowest prior trading range was 315 pips in Feb 2011. Prior to that you have to go to 2002 to have a more narrow month range. If the price is to extend the range, which way would it break? Good question and not sure I could answer it with any certainty. With the Olympics coming up there is likely going to be quirky economic data coming out which should make deciphering the true state of the economy difficult at best.
The price is a few pips from the months midpoint at 1.5556. Perhaps that is as good a place to hide if the level of confidence of a trend move up or down is low. It may also be a level to judge bullish and bearish. Stay above = bullish. Move below = bearish. Use the 100 hour MA as a confirmation for the bears (at 1.5534 currently).
