September: +0.6% m/m, +6.9% y/y

MNI survey median: +0.5% m/m, +6.9% y/y
MNI survey range: -0.3% to +1.1% m/m

August: -0.7% m/m, +6.6% y/y
July: +0.8% m/m, +7.5% y/y
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Import price inflation in Germany came in
marginally higher than expected in September, boosted by gains in all
major components, led by energy, the Federal Statistical Office reported
on Wednesday.

After a dip in August, import prices recovered 0.6% on the month in
September, lifting the annual change to +6.9%. The month-on-month result
is 0.1 percentage point higher than the median forecast, but the annual
rate matches expectations.

Excluding energy prices, which increased 1.9% m/m and 28.4% y/y,
import prices were up by a more modest 0.3% m/m in September to give an
annual rate of +2.8%.

While Brent crude prices have trended upwards since troughing in
early October, they remain more than 3.5% lower on average than in
September. Barring a strong spike in oil prices in the near term, base
effects should weigh on energy price pressures over the coming months.

A recent China PMI report, however, which showed expansion in the
country’s manufacturing sector in October following three months of
contraction, could presage the start of a new upward trend in commodity
prices, as evidenced by the rally in industrial metals and oil earlier
this week.

Intermediate goods import prices climbed 0.1% m/m and 5.0% y/y.
Capital goods imports were also 0.1% more costly than in August, though
they were 0.8% lower than one year ago.

With consumer durables up 1.0% and non-durables rising 0.8%,
overall consumer goods import prices increased 0.9% on the month to give
an annual change of +3.3%.

Manufacturers polled in the October PMI for Germany reported the
first decline in input prices since September 2009, on the back of a
rapid turnaround in raw material inflation since the record peak seen in
February.

Export prices were unchanged between August and September, lowering
annual inflation to +2.9%, the statistics office added.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —

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