SA Unemployment: -9k (pan-German), -6k (West), -3k (East)

MNI survey median: -17,500 m/m
MNI survey range: -30,000 to no -4.200 m/m
—

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The number of unemployed in Germany continued to
decline in November, although less than most analysts expected, data
released by the Federal Labour Office on Tuesday show.

Some 9,000 fewer people were actively seeking work in November,
reducing the seasonally adjusted number of jobseekers to 3.144 million.
The jobless rate was unchanged at 7.5%.

Without taking into account seasonal trends, the number of
unemployed fell to 2.931 million in November from 2.945 million in
October leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.0%.

Payroll job figures, which lag unemployment figures by one month,
rose 34,000 in October after +38,000 in September. The number of job
vacancies maintained their upward trend, rising by 10,000 in November,
as in October.

After unemployment returned to pre-crisis levels earlier this year,
“the strong growth outlook for 2011 and 2012 will translate into further
falls in unemployment” approaching a rate of 6% towards 2012 and further
employment creation, the EU Commission forecast Monday.

Leading indicators also suggest that the labour market will
strengthen further in the near term.

According to the Ifo institute’s October employment barometer, the
share of firms in manufacturing, construction and retailing intending to
add staff rose to its highest level since at least 1998.

The European Commission’s survey showed hiring intentions in
industry and retailing rising to multi-year highs in November. While
expectations eroded slightly in the services and construction, they
remained well above their long-term averages.

Firms polled in Markit Economics’ purchasing managers index
reported that the upward trend in private sector employment remained
intact in November. The index for employment expectations in
manufacturing rose 2.2 points to 56.6, while the index for the services
rose 2.6 points to 56.2.

Rather than the persistently high unemployment expected in the
United States and many other Eurozone countries, Germany will have to
tackle labor shortages over the medium term, international organizations
have warned.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said
earlier this month that Germany is dead last among industrialized
countries in the ratio of those entering the job market versus those
leaving it.

“In the light of negative demographic trends and overall stagnation
in terms of educational outcomes, the projected strong labour demand
could lead to shortages at least in certain sectors and especially for
high-skilled workers,” the Commission warned Monday.

Earlier today, the Federal Statistical Office reported that
seasonally adjusted employment had risen by 10,000 on the month in
October to 40.461 million.

— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142, email: frankfurt@marketnews.com

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