A snippet from GS on their US economic growth outlook.
Forecasts:
- expect GDP growth of 3.5% in Q3
- 5.5% in Q4 (previously 6.5%)
- 3.7% in 2022 Q4/Q4 (previously 3.0%)
On an annual average basis, our GDP growth forecast is now
- 5.7% (vs. 6.2% consensus) in 2021
- 4.6% (vs. 4.3% consensus) in 2022
- but the annual average masks a sharp deceleration to below trend by end-2022.
GS cite slower consumption growth
- with Covid fears likely to persist through the winter virus season, it might take a while for spending to recover in still-depressed categories such as very high-contact and office-adjacent services
And add that:
- the need for inventory restocking has grown larger as supply chain disruptions have hit production again in Q3
GS view on the virus:
- There are now signs that the Delta wave is cresting...We therefore expect a job market rebound in coming months and have also offset part of the Q3/Q4 GDP downgrade with stronger numbers in the first half of 2022.
