Goldman Sachs analysts says "Fiscal Boost: Mainly a 2018 Story "
(bolding mine)
- Expects fiscal policy to become more expansionary next year
- The timing is uncertain
- GS' preliminary expectation is that the growth effects from looser fiscal policy would be concentrated in Q4 2017 and the first half of 2018
- The timing depends mainly on how long it takes tax legislation to become law, and whether Congress legislates a prolonged phase-in or implements the full tax cut in the first year
- Infrastructure and federal spending are also potential factors. On the former, the lags are often quite long ... On the latter, a boost to defense spending looks likely sometime between Q2 and Q4 2017, but this may be partly offset with cuts to non-defense spending in the same timeframe
- The effect of Obamacare "repeal and replace" is less clear ... likely to provide a modest net stimulus in the near term-potentially as soon as Q2 2017, this as result of the likely repeal of the taxes used to pay for some of the program
- Other changes are likely but seem unlikely to be implemented until 2019.
In a nutshell, then ... Don't hold your breath