Given the headlines and the seeming urgency of some of the core leaders, my suspicion is that a bailout deal will be announced at the end of the meeting, even if all the details aren’t decided.
The euro rally that follows might depend on the finess of the announcement. If they announce a deal and attempt to do a victory lap, then EUR/USD could spike up to 1.33 or above. If the details aren’t finalized, a large portion of the gains may evaporate soon afterwards.
If a ‘conditional deal’ is announced, that should set the stage for a slower and more durable rally.
It’s never a good idea to trade on expectations of sound political decisionmaking but if you have to do something, I believe it’s best to be long EUR rather than short.
