Guggenheim recession forecast model showed a 58% chance of the economy being in a recession by mid-2020

  • 77% chance of one beginning in the next 24 months
  • "aggressive policy action can delay recession, but not avoid it."

From a note written by Guggenheim Partners global chief investment officer Scott Minerd.

  • Minerd oversees more than $US240 billion in assets under management

via Reuters, more at the link

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As an aside, when folks quote probabilities at something like 77% instead of rounded to 70, or 80, or 75 or some such they tend to gain more credibility.

I'm not dissing Guggenheim here, just making an observation. Which is accurate 76.38% of the time.

;-)

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And another thing …. if the probability is 77% then it can be avoided, right? (at least in the time frame specified)