The Nonfarm payroll competition is open and entries are pouring in

The prize is fantastic! (You'll need to enter here at this link, where you can also check out the prize)

Here is Goldman Sachs' guess:

  • Based on the better-than-expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously.
  • Our revised forecast is marginally above consensus expectations of 182k by about 0.1 standard deviation of a typical surprise.
  • Labor market indicators were generally improved from September, although the manufacturing sector continued to disappoint.
  • We forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% due to our expectation for a rebound in the labor force participation rate.
  • Finally, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% in October after a weaker-than-expected September figure.