The Nonfarm payroll competition is open and entries are pouring in
Here is Goldman Sachs' guess:
- Based on the better-than-expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously.
- Our revised forecast is marginally above consensus expectations of 182k by about 0.1 standard deviation of a typical surprise.
- Labor market indicators were generally improved from September, although the manufacturing sector continued to disappoint.
- We forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% due to our expectation for a rebound in the labor force participation rate.
- Finally, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% in October after a weaker-than-expected September figure.