A preview of the Japanese CPI for October on 22 November 2019

  • due at 2330GMT

The inflation data is normally on a Friday but a Japanese holiday on the 23rd has brought this release forward.

National CPI for Oct

  • Headline expected 1.4% y/y, prior 1.2%
  • Excluding fresh food expected 1.0% y/y, prior 1.0%
  • Excluding fresh food and energy, expected 0.4%, prior 0.4% (this is the one the BOJ is watching)

A preview via HSBC:

  • The Bank of Japan's preferred measure of core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy product prices, we expect to be unchanged at 0.4% y-o-y for the third consecutive month in October. This, in our view, reflects still benign growth in wages despite extremely tight labour market conditions. Meanwhile, headline inflation likely accelerated in October, led by higher energy prices reflecting global oil prices.

ASB:

  • Already-released Tokyo CPI suggests a sizeable lift in Japanese headline CPI in October. However, most of the increase reflects a temporary spike in retail petrol prices. Headline CPI will ease next month.
  • We estimate the Bank of Japan's core inflation measure inched higher to 0.6% yoy. This is well below the central bank's 2% yoy target