The market likes a cliff-hanger, and the vote this evening on health care insurance reform tonight is just such a cliff-hanger. The market has not paid much attention to the issue of late as as the saga has been dragging on for most of a year, but the legislation could not be more ill-timed.
In order to make the proposal to look fiscally sustainable, an array of tax hikes go into effect years before any benefits are paid out. This will have the affect of putting fresh burdens on an economy that is already slow to emerge from recession.
If there is any market reaction to the vote, it is likely to be somewhat dollar negative for the near-term, if passed. As of Sunday morning, the Democrats still appear to be 4-6 votes of what is needed for passage. If the vote is postponed, that means the votes have not been lined up and the saga will continue.
