Via Westpac, their updated view for the Australian dollar for the next couple of months.
The northern summer's risk rally and USD rout extended to AUD/USD 0.74 on 1 Sep.
Since then, headwinds have sprung up,
- including US equity wobbles as the election looms and fiscal support wanes,
- along with a rebound in Covid-19 cases in the US and Europe.
- The RBA's dovish shift adds weight to the A$, with consensus growing for not just cuts in official rates to 0.1% in November but some form of QE.
Trade below 0.70 may become frequent near term. But this would be a buying opportunity.
The RBA is still not attracted to negative rates and Australia's historically large trade surpluses provide some insulation. Moreover, we expect an improvement in risk appetite post-US election and aggressive Fed easing, undermining USD multi-month.
We retain our 0.75 year-end target.