Look at the consensus forecast for jobless claims; it is virtually unchanged from the prior week. That is typical of economists being economists. Take the last known variable and shade it up or down a smidge based on the color of your mood ring at the time the forecast is made.
What do they unfailingly forget to consider when “forecasting” jobless claims? Whether or not the employment office was open every day that week. Now that much of the process is done on line (isn’t everything?), the calendar is a bit less important, but it remains a risk. Look for claims to be lower than expected, based entirely on a Presidents Day holiday-shortened filing week. 626,000 initial claims is the consensul forecast.
