Here's a preview of what to look for from the non farm payroll data in the US tonight (ps. ForexLive will have full, errr, live coverage!)
TD Securities says (bolding mine):
- Markets may not be roiled by a "modest miss on headline payrolls" if the number is offset by an increase in wage growth
- However, "a payroll miss below 200K could lead investors to overreact, pushing out rate hike expectations"
- "a growing cadre of Fed officials softening their calls for mid-year hikes by suggesting that a hike can take place between June and September, there is a nontrivial risk of market overreaction in the event of a weaker payroll report" ...
i.e. a miss could be read as likely to push Fed policy normalization lift-off later. But ...
"Such an overreaction could nevertheless represent a key opportunity to lean against the market as data is likely to begin rebounding over the coming month"
More previews:
Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
Infograph: Preview of the March US employment report
