HSBC says CHF rally not caused by inflows
HSBC says last year’s rally in the Swiss franc was not caused by an inflow of safety-seeking investors but rather by a stop in the outflow of Swiss-based investors who no longer saw opportunities in Europe.
“If the story regarding euro-zone break-up fears were true, we should have seen a big inflow on the portfolio accounts by foreigners. That is foreigners rushing into Swiss franc assets. However, in the third quarter of 2011 net portfolio investment saw an outflow of CHF10 billion,” HSBC said Monday in a note to clients.
The looked at Switzerland’s balance of payments system.
I’m skeptical but there is no denying the unwillingness of well-heeled investors to take any risk over the past several years (as we see in the Treasury market). EUR/CHF at 1.2049.