The GBPUSD has Jubilee-itis today. The days range has been 75 pips (EURUSD has 125 pip range). The NY range is 51 pips. The technicals from earlier today remain largely the same (although at intraday support).
The burden of proof remains on the buyers to prove they can push the price above bullish technical hurdles. On the hourly chart, that includes the topside resistance on the hourly chart at the 1.5413, followed by the 38.2% retracement of last week trend move lower (at 1.54377). The high on Friday found willing sellers against this level. Another test will be critical for the buyers.
On the downside, the pair has developed a channel since the post employment fireworks on Friday. The lower extreme is currently being tested at the 1.5362 level. Look for intraday buyers against the risk defined level, with a break igniting some momentum selling on disappointment (or at least give a reason to extend the NY range). If the level does hold, that move to topside resistance targets would be the next targets and the buyers will have the opportunity (once again) to prove they can push the price higher.
Other keys levels:
Topside:
- 100 hour MA (blue line) at 1.5455 currently (and moving lower).
- 50% of the move down last week at 1.54905
- 61.8% at 1.55433
- 200 hour MA at 1.5569
On the downside,
- 1.5362 – Trendline outlined above
- 1.5331 – Low print after unemployment.
- 1.5292 – Low from Sept 7 2010
- 1.5266/69 – Low from Friday and low from October 6th
- 1.5232 – Low for the year (January 13th 2012).
