US inflation shows it's not ready to meet the target just yet
Confidence is a funny thing. It's an emotion and not a strategy. The fed want to feel confident about a lot of things and at the moment those things are coming up short, with the exception of jobs
Ok, it wasn't a disastrous report today and only mildly missed. Wages turning down on the month will be disappointing but they held up compared to a year ago
While these numbers might not be such a big deal on their own, it's another part of the economy that's not playing ball. When you add together all the little pieces the bigger picture becomes clearer
The Fed's confidence shifted last night with their path of rate rises coming lower. That's important as Yellen emphasised that it's not when rates rise that's important but the path of further rises
The market will start to think the Fed will start wavering on hikes if the data worsens and that's spells bad times for the buck
The dollar might survive the rest of the week with a lack of data but next week we're back into the big stuff with manufacturing the main theme
USD JPY meanwhile, pulled up again around the 10th June lows at 122.48 and just ahead of the 50.0 fib of the May swing up at 122.36
USDJPY H4 chart
122.75/85 is the closest resistance, while 123.18 is looking stronger, followed by 123.55/60
