Comments by Ifo economist, Klaus Wohlrabe, after the report earlier
- There could be a GDP drop of between 5-20% this year
- The degree depends on length of shutdown
- We presume that there will be a bad recession for at least two quarters
- The proportion of pessimistic companies has risen strongly in recent days
- German manufacturing index hit its lowest level since August 2009
- Says sentiment has never fallen as strongly as this in the services sector
- Food shops and chemists are among the few areas where business climate has risen
I think the key aspect to watch now is whether or not the lockdown and containment measures taken by Germany will start to bear fruit over the next few weeks.
Otherwise, with international demand still weak and travel/services not going to drastically improve any time soon, the economic situation will continue to remain dire.
