Comments from IMF economist Obstfeld after the latest world growth estimates

  • We see wider dispersion of risks, tilted to the downside
  • Trade disruption is a downside risk that isn't included in baseline case
  • Effects of Brexit are likely to be complex
  • A US fiscal expansion would have positive spillover effects
  • We know direction of US policy but not the specifics
  • All nations would lose from a trade war
  • Some US proposals could hurt the US even without a trade war
  • Fixing Italy's banking sector would boost growth
  • Fed independence must be maintained and a strict legal rule would tie it's hands

This is the usual stuff from the regular economic orthodoxy. The latest IMF forecasts are here.