A preview of Canada CPI due on due 21 September 2018 at 1230GMT
Via RBC on what to expect:
- We see a 0.2% m/m decline in headline CPI in August after a surprise +0.5% m/m print in July that took the YoY rate to a more than six-year high of 3.0%. The monthly print was driven by a 15.4% m/m increase in inter-city transportation (airfares) that looks likely due to methodology changes, with a reversal of about one-third of that gain expected in August. A 2.0% m/m decline in gas prices should also pressure the monthly change into negative territory. Gas prices will still be up ~20% y/y (contributing ~0.7pp to headline inflation) and a big reason why the BoC sees the rise to the top-end of their target range as "transitory".
- The core measures are a much better gauge of underlying inflation pressures and should stay around the 2.0% level on average for the seventh consecutive month.
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ps. Retail sales data from Canada for July is due at the same time, I'll have more to come on this separately
Meanwhile, more Nafta mutterings to come too I guess. The deadline is approaching for these guys.
