After Friday’s improved US employment report, upgrades to GDP forecasts are being trotted out by the economists. Trouble is, most see two strong quarters of growth as super-low inventory levels are corrected. The “cash for clunkers” program was successful in moving lots of stale inventory off of dealer lots and now those inventories will need to be replenished. That alone will have a measurable impact on the economy. It also serves as an allegory for what is going on elsewhere in the economy.
Just as those inventories are being rebuilt, the bulk of the $787 bln in fiscal stimulus will hit the economy. That should be good for a sugar-rush of activity, but the sustainability of the rebound is what matters.
Bottom line: Happy days are here again, but they may not last much beyond Christmas.
