Is this it? Are the US and Iran at war?

These reports of attacks aren't fake

The fog of war has descended over twitter and the news media. There is all kinds of fake news out there but there is enough real news from CNN, Fox, the BBC, Reuters and others to convince me that this is actually happening.

Most concerning is some talk that Iran's Revolutionary Guard has taken responsibility. At best you could argue this was some disconnected militias trying to create chaos. But from the US side I'm not even sure it matters. Trump almost has to respond now, especially if there are casualties.

If it is war (and it certainly looks like it), it's tough to understate the consequences for global markets. For gold and oil this is a screaming buy and it's bad news for stock markets. In FX, the trade is to buy the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

WTI is up to $64.50 and gold is up $14 to $1588.