You can try and make sense of it but might not get very far...
The market price action today is not a thing of beauty for the EURUSD...
Looking at the intraday chart, there were a couple holds against the 100 hour MA and a few fails (blue step line in the chart below). The move to the high after the weaker retail sales failed miserably and the price is back below that MA line which is at 1.10918. Any clues from the stock? Not really. Fed anxiety? Perhaps. The pair remains in a narrow range for the day. The London/European traders will be heading home shortly. Lucky you....
Tomorrow may not be much better. The market will be awaiting the FOMC decision. It is one of those 3 or 4 letter days where risk is high and surprises can be around each corner. It was only a few trading days ago that we had the ECB decision where they cut rates (albeit very modestly) but added 20B of QE. That led a sharp fall in the EURUSD folllowed by an even sharper 400 pip rally. As mentioned earlier the price has not been able to get below the 38.2% retracement of that move at 1.1065 in the 3 trading days since that falll, keeping the buyers more in control from that perspective.
We will see what the Fed does I guess...
