With the Fed and BOJ out of the way, it's election season
It's 46 days until voting begins in The Most Hated Election Ever™.
The battle has been going on for years but it truly starts with the first debate on Monday.
As I'm sure you already know, the polls have been tightening in the past few weeks but Hillary remains a prohibitive betting favorite because of breakdowns and skews in the electoral college.
Most betting sites have her at 1/2 or 4/7 (around 65%) while Donald Trump is at 18/8 or 7/4 (around 35%). But Trump has improved in the past month.
Realclearpolitics has her at 45.5% to Trump at 43.4% but there is quite a bit of variance. Expect to see more on state-by-state breakdowns and voter turnout in the next six weeks. There will undoubtedly be more polling than ever.
The leading idea in markets is that either candidate winning will result in a small window where Congressional leaders will work together and offer some stimulus to the US economy.
That might be a dangerous assumption but I'm an optimist and politicians are at their best when they're spending other people's money.
