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TOKYO (MNI) – Economists have revised down their fiscal 2012 growth
forecasts for Japan further as the deepening European debt crisis
threatens to hurt global growth, the latest monthly survey by the
Cabinet Office’s Economic Planning Association released on Monday
showed.

The association polled 42 economists and research institutions from
Dec. 24 to Jan. 10, with 40 answering on the growth and inflation
outlook and 39 on the BOJ’s monetary policy stance.

The previous survey was conducted from Nov. 24 to Dec. 1.

In the near term, economists expect a low 0.51% annualized GDP
growth rate in the October-December quarter, a downward revision from
their previous average forecast for a 0.67% rise.

For the whole of fiscal 2011 ending this March, economists on
average now project a 0.33% contraction in real GDP, instead of a 0.36%
rise forecast in the previous survey.

Economists on average project a 1.89% rise in real GDP in fiscal
2012, revised down further from +2.02% foreseen in the previous survey,
while they expect a 1.42% rise in fiscal 2013, up slightly from their
previous forecast for +1.40%.

Forecasts for prices were little changed, with mild deflation
expected to continue through at least early 2013.

The survey showed that the average forecast for core CPI (excluding
perishables) in fiscal 2011 was put at -0.10%, down slightly from -0.09%
in the previous survey, while core CPI for fiscal 2012 is seen at
-0.20%, also down from the previous estimate of -0.18%.

Economists on average expect consumer prices to show a 0.14% rise
in fiscal 2013, revised down from +0.21% last month. It would be the
first annual increase in five years since +1.2% in fiscal 2008.

The survey also showed that 23 economists predict a further credit
easing by the Bank of Japan in coming months, mostly by March, up
further from 21 last month.

Meanwhile, 16 economists expect the BOJ to start unwinding its
powerful monetary easing in December 2012 onward, down from 19 in the
previous survey.

tokyo@marketnews.com
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