TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s trade surplus for the first 20 days of
October stood at Y224.86 billion, up 3.8% from a year earlier, pointing
to a smaller rate of growth in surplus for the whole of October after a
sharp 54.0% gain in September, data released by the Ministry of Finance
on Tuesday showed.

Exports rose 12.3% y/y during the 20-day period to Y3.540 trillion
while imports gained 12.9% to Y3.316 trillion.

The rate of increase in exports has decelerated from +14.4% in the
whole of September, +15.5% in August, +23.5% in July and a 30-year high
of +45.3% in February 2010 (the highest since +51.4% marked in April
1980).

If exports and imports continued to grow at the same pace through
the end of October, they would each total Y5.961 trillion and Y5.090
trillion, which means the whole-month surplus would come to around Y871
billion, up only 8.9% y/y, after a preliminary 54.0% surge in September.

In the first 20 days of October, automobiles, engines, steel and
iron pushed up exports while iron ore, liquefied natural gas and
nonferrous metals raised imports.

The average price of imported crude oil for Oct. 1-20 was $76.7 a
barrel, up 9% on year from $70.2 in October 2009. It was up from a 4%
gain in September.

Yoshimasa Maruyama, economist at Itochu Corp, said the Oct. 1-20
trade data confirms the slower export growth in light of waning effects
of fiscal stimulus in advanced economies, slower global economic growth
and the drag from the yen’s rise that trims export profits when
repatriated.

In September, shipments of automobiles, ships as well as iron and
steel products posted double-digit percentage growth from a year earlier
but the pace of y/y growth in automobiles slowed to +12.0% from +18.7%
in August and +27.1% in July and +40.0% in June.

Last year, demand for Japanese cars and electronics recovered
gradually in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recession.

The value of imports of liquefied natural gas, iron ore and coal
rose sharply in September from year-earlier levels but that for
petroleum dropped 6.1%, due partly to the yen’s 9.0% appreciation to
Y84.66 to the dollar from Y93.01 a year before.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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