I guess I should get the 'seasonal distortion' potential impact out of the way first, due to variable timing of lunar year and the impact on Japanese exports to Asia.

OK.

Data is here earlier:

Main points:

  • exports fell for the 3rd month in a row
  • imports has their biggest drop in > 2 years
  • exports to China (China is Japan's biggest trading partner) +5.5% y/y (-17.4% in January)
  • exports to China fell 6.3% in Jan-Feb this year compared to the same period in 2018