JPMorgan with one for the contrarians - a Biden victory could be positive for stocks
You'll see plenty about on potential tax hikes for firms if Biden wins. JPM say no …
"The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities ... However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive."
JPM think he is unlikely to wind back corporate tax cuts as much as expected
- "Given the current economic weakness, business recovery and job growth are likely to be prioritized over policies that could dampen economic growth and perhaps even jeopardize the desired 2022 midterm election outcome."
- "As such, the degree of corporate tax reversal may ultimately be lower than currently discussed."
- Biden will boost infrastructure spending
- will soften the rhetoric out of the White House on tariffs
- increase the federal minimum wage (which will be "net positive for S&P 500 earnings and largely offset the corporate tax headwind")
- "history suggests that challengers to an incumbent typically campaign at an extreme only to converge to the centre post-election"
Sorry, that pic above, just had to slot this one in too....