June Canadian employment data

  • Prior was +289.6K
  • Canada unemployment rate 12.3% vs 12.1% expected
  • Prior unemployment 13.7%
  • Full time employment +488.1K vs +219.4K prior
  • Part time employment +464.8K vs +70.3K prior
  • Employment 1.8m below Feb
  • Hourly wage rate permanent employees +6.8% vs +8.9% expected
  • Participation rate 63.8% vs 61.4% prior
  • Statistics Canada estimates 3.1m workers affected by shutdown from peak of 5.5m
  • If those who wanted to work but did not look for a job were included as unemployed in June, it would result in an adjusted unemployment rate of 16.3%, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared with the adjusted rate in May

The participation rate was around 65.5% before the pandemic so you could probably add one-and-a-half points to the unemployment rate. But everything is moving in the right direction here.

The worry is how many jobs are permanent and StatCan offers some insight. They say that about one-third of the unemployed were on temporary layoff while two-thirds were searching for more work. That's a troubling number because it would still put unemployment above 8%.