The AUD is a commodity currency but it is more dependent on iron ore, coal, and aluminium markets than it is on the gold price.
Yes Australia is a gold producer but the amount that is actually produced is by my reckoning (and hopefully someone will correct me if I’m wrong) not all that significant. So to say that the AUD must rise just because the Gold price is rising doesn’t always hold in my view. If Australia held vast amounts of Gold then that would be a different matter.
With regard to other commodities, countries like South Korea and China have been on a buying and stockpiling binge for the last 9 months. This buying has now stopped. The AUD/USD rate has risen from .63 to .93 in this period. Perhaps it has also come far enough?
I’m not brave enough to be overly short AUD/USD but if pairs like AUD/JPY (which I am short) turn south then we could be in for some major moves.
