The latest from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), some snippets:

Consensus Forecasts expects a slightly softer growth outlook

  • Recent activity indicators point to softer growth in the near term.
  • Beyond 2018, annual growth is expected to peak at 3.2 percent for the year to March 2020, before moderating to 2.9 percent by 2021.

NZD expectations revised lower

  • Although the NZD has surprised on the upside, expectations remain for a depreciation through to 2021. The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue lifting interest rates over the coming year. In contrast, the RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR on hold until at least the middle of next year. This should reduce the yield attractiveness of the NZD, and hence weigh on the currency.

Inflation outlook broadly unchanged

  • Forecasters continue to expect annual inflation to track close to 2 percent over the next few years.

Interest rate outlook also broadly unchanged

  • Consensus Forecastsfor interest rates have been revised slightly lower from 2019.