What's coming up today
The market is feeling good as New York wakes up for the week. Commodity currencies are higher and stock futures are up more than 1.5%. It all started with a huge rally in China with the Shanghai Composite up 5.7%.
The Monday bull case is that coronavirus numbers are always lower to start the week. You would think the market would adjust for that but last Monday the market was weak until the Florida data. The long weekend should make the weekend effect even stronger this time around.
The market is also closely watching US mortality numbers, which have continued to decline. I'd argue that people not wanting to catch it at all, no matter the mortality is a bigger economic factor than deaths but it's a grey area.
As for the economic calendar, watch out for the ISM non-manufacturing index for June at 1400 GMT. I'm also looking forward to the 1430 GMT BOC business outlook survey. It's a good up-to-date look at business sentiment.
Here's a note from Bernstein on the virus today:
We predict 100K cases/day by July 18, if current trends persist, and that COVID mortality will turn in the next two weeks. In 32 of 50 states, the disease is still accelerating. Thus far, stable and increasing infection rates have been more than offset by a decline in mortality (the case fatality rate, or CFR). However, we are already seeing the number of deaths increasing in some states and trends suggest deaths will accelerate even with further improvement in CFR. If the trend in improving case fatality rate (CFR) attenuates and no course correction occurs to slow infections, we could surpass our prior peak mortality rate by 3Q"
