The first reading on fourth quarter GDP will be released at the bottom of the hour.
The consensus is +1.9% (Reuters) or 1.8% (Bloomberg) but the market will be pricing in a softer reading after yesterday’s report on durable goods orders missed expectations.
Most economists don’t adjust their models so close to the release but several do. Here are the most-recently updated estimates.
The market isn’t stupid. Part of the decline in risk appetite yesterday would have been the effort to price in a lower GDP. If we see 1.8% or 1.9%, look for a positive boost.