The US mini-refunding winds up today with an auction of $15 bln long bonds today (30 years). Central banks are likely to avoid that issue like the plague, and they should. There is no reason for a central bank to move that far out the curve. They tend to concentrate on the “belly” of the curve; the 5-7 year sector, and shorter.
Insurance companies, endowments, and investors with very long time horizons are the most active in the long end of the curve, as are speculators who are looking for “alpha”. Lord knows that if you want to make a directional bet on rates, the long-end is where you get your most bang for the buck.
If you think the economy is going into the toilet and set off a deflationary spiral. long bonds are for you. If you are among the canned-goods and ammunition crows who expects hyper-inflation, sell all the of the long guy you can get your hands on.
Demand was sold for 2 and 10-year notes so far this week. Long bonds may prove trickier, especially know that the Fed has begun to wind up its Treasury purchase program.. Stay tuned: results at 17:00 GMT.
