By Ian McKendry
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
is expected to drop slightly to 62.5, according to economists surveyed
by Market News International.
The Confidence Index jumped from 57.7 in April to 63.3 in May, and
analysts have said the index has generally been trending upward in 2010,
but the “pop” in May could reverse in June.
“In general all the consumer confidence numbers are moving sideways
with a slight upward tick,” Mike Englund, Chief Economist with Action
Economics told MNI.
Englund added that the Conference Boards’ Confidence Index may have
gotten a little ahead of the other confidence indicators and a downward
tick would bring it more in-line with the rest.
In addition, Englund said the market in general may have displayed
“excess enthusiasm” in March and April due to more positive data and
cited the expectations component of the indices as one of the
main drivers.
“Wiggles among all the surveys is really just in the expectations
component of that survey, so a little give back on that front would
easily pull the headline index down a tad,” Englund said.
Despite the expectation of a lower Confidence number, Englund said
just as the market (and a long with it the Confidence Index) may have
overshot in March and April, it may overcorrect in June as the equity
market reversed in May.
A look at other select confidence indicators show mixed
data, with two of the five indices showing a more positive outlook in
June, and the remaining three with a more negative reading in June.
Recent Confidence Indices:
June’10 May’10
————————————————————————
Mich Consumer Sentiment 73.6 72.2
RBC Consumer Outlook 58.4 72.7
IBD 46.2 48.7
Washington Post -43 (Jun 20 wk) -44 (May 16 wk)
Rasmussen 81.9 (Jun 28) 84.1 (May mo)
** Market News International Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
