NEW YORK (MNI) – The reading of a +0.2% change in May U.S. retail
sales from the Commerce Department Tuesday differed from the average of
forecasts in the three-month MNI Forecast Competition, for no change, by
0.2 point. And the +0.2% change in the May U.S. Producer Price Index
reported by the Labor Department differed from the average of contest
forecasts, +0.3%, by 0.1 percentage point.

Forecast contest participants had delivered their estimates for
retail and the PPI by the 10:30 ET Monday deadline.

The next statistic to be estimated is the result of Wednesday’s
Consumer Price Index from the Labor Department. The deadline for those
forecasts is 10:30 ET.

Thursday, the reading of $43.7 billion for the April trade deficit
reported by the Commerce Department differed from the average of
forecasts, $47.4 billion, by $3.7 billion.

Friday a week ago, the reading of 54,000 for the increase in May
U.S. nonfarm payrolls differed from the average of forecasts in the
ongoing three-month MNI Forecast Competition, 182,000, by 128,000.

Wednesday a week ago, the 53.5 result for the manufacturing ISM
report differed from the MNI Forecast Competition average, 59.1, by 5.6
points.

Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The three-month
Best Overall Forecaster gets $1,500.

June 8 MNI announced the May winners:

— Joseph Theelen, University of Amsterdam (UvA)
— Dr. Stephen Kirchner, University of Technology, Sydney (UTS)
Business School
— Mike Moran, Dawai Capital Markets America

May 5 MNI announced the April winners:

— Omair Sharif, RBS
— Fernando Melro dos Santos, Private
— Dr. Stephen Kirchner, UTS Business School

Other results so far in the competition have been:

Data Avg MNI
Indicator For Unit Forecast Median Actual

Durable Goods Orders Apr Pct Chg Flat -2.6 -3.6
New Home Sales Apr SAAR in Thsn 282 300 323
Industrial Production Apr Pct Chg +0.5 +0.4 Flat
Housing Starts Apr SAAR in Thsn 522 570 523
CPI Apr Pct Chg +0.5 +0.4 +0.4
PPI Apr Pct Chg +0.8 +0.6 +0.8
Retail Sales Apr Pct Chg +0.6 +0.6 +0.5
International Trade Mar Bln$ -45.5 -47.7 -48.2
Nonfarm Payrolls Apr Chg in Thsn 206 185 244
ISM Mfg Index Apr Index 60.6 59.5 60.4
Durable Goods Orders Mar Pct Chg +1.1 +1.8 +2.5
New Home Sales Mar SAAR in Thsn 260 280 300
Housing Starts Mar SAAR in Thsn 485 525 549
Industrial Production Mar Pct Chg +0.5 +0.6 +0.8
CPI Mar Pct Chg +0.8 +0.5 +0.5
PPI Mar Pct Chg +1.2 +0.9 +0.7
Retail Sales Mar Pct Chg +0.8 +0.5 +0.4
International Trade Feb Bln$ -45.7 -44.0 -45.8

Participants can register for the online contest without cost at
http://mni.lumenogic.com/mni/login/login.html where there is more
information and a guided tour. The results will continue to be published
by Market News International.

The contest runs until June 30. The contest will decide who wins
the title of Best Overall Forecaster, the recipient of the $1,500 prize.

When the outcome of each economic indicator is published — the
initial release without revisions — each individual forecast will be
scored for how soon it was registered and for its accuracy. The total
score for every participant will be summed up on a monthly basis and
ranked in descending order.

Each month until June 30, the three forecasters with the highest
scores will be awarded Visa gift cards worth up to $500. The MNI
Forecast Competition outcome for each indicator, determined by averaging
all participant forecasts, will be published on the MNI Main Wire and by
MNI Bullet Points at least 12 hours prior to the official release time.

At the end of June, MNI will award the competition’s Best Overall
Forecaster award with a Visa gift card of $1,500.

The competition covers the following 10 U.S. economic reports:

International Trade Balance
Retail Sales
PPI
CPI
Industrial Production
Housing Starts
New Homes Sales
Durable Goods Orders
ISM Manufacturing Index
Nonfarm Payrolls

** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **

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