— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a trade surplus of
Y39.9 billion in October, down 95.1% on year, following a revised 61.8%
y/y drop in September, according to the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Monday, Nov. 21 (2350 GMT Sunday).
In October, the import growth rate is expected to have surpassed
export growth due to increased fossil fuel purchases for thermal power
plants to offset the lost of electricity generation capacity caused by
the continued shutdown of many of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors,
economists said.
Imports are expected to have risen 15.1% y/y in October, the 22nd
monthly gain in a row, following +12.1% in September and +19.2% in
August.
In the first 20 days of October, imports rose 15.0% y/y, led by
crude oil, liquefied natural gas and mobile handsets, according to
government data.
Exports are expected to show a 0.3% fall on year in October, the
first drop in three months, following +2.3% in September, +2.8% in
August and -3.4% in July.
“Exports are expected to have declined on year in October due to
flooding in Thailand as well as slowing in overseas demand and the
strong yen,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief economist at Itochu Economic
Research Institute.
Exports in the first 20 days of last month fell 1.6% on the year,
according to government data. Lower demand for semiconductors, ships and
computer parts offset increased shipments of automobiles.
Looking ahead, Taro Saito, senior economist at NLI Research
Institute, forecast that the trade surplus would remain at a low level
until the end of this year due to the strong yen, slowing overseas
economy, the effects of flooding in Thailand and the high level of crude
oil prices.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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