TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s Q4 GDP q/q change will be revised up to an
annualized 0.8% fall (-0.2% q/q) from an initial 2.3% drop (-0.6% q/q),
reflecting an expected upward revision to capital investment, according
to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Market News
International.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) gross
domestic product data for October-December at 0850 JST on Thursday, Mar.
8 (2350 GMT on Wednesday).
The latest median forecast is little changed from the 0.6%
annualized fall (-0.1% q/q) projected in an earlier MNI survey of 11
economists released on Thursday.
Preliminary GDP data released last month showed that Japan’s
economy declined a real 0.6% q/q in Q4 (an annualized -2.3%), posting
the first drop in two quarters, following +1.7% (an annulized +7.0%) in
Q3.
Economists are basing their forecasts on the results of a quarterly
business survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday.
Capex will be revised up to +5.0% q/q from a preliminary +1.9%,
while the positive contribution of private-sector inventories to GDP
will be unchanged at -0.3 percentage point.
The MOF survey showed non-financial firm capex including software
rose 7.6% y/y in Q4, showing the first rise in three quarters and
posting the highest gain since +13.6% in Q1 2007.
Forecasting GDP is not an easy job because the Cabinet Office
revises seasonal adjustments to past figures each time it releases new
GDP data, whether the preliminary or the revised series.
tokyo@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
