By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index fell back more than
three points in the Oct. 2 period to indicate trouble for the September
retail sales report, according to the results of Market News
International’s weekly survey published Monday.
The September 2 week, which included August chain-store reports,
rolled off the sample squeezing down the Oct. 2 period to 56 chains.
Results moved to the lower end of trend with total ex-auto ex-gas
sales at an on-year +3.4%, down five tenths in the week, and same-store
sales at +2.0%, down three tenths.
When adjusted and when including vehicles and gasoline, the results
point to no change for the September retail sales headline. Ex-auto is
indicated at -0.5% as is the ex-auto ex-gas category.
Last week’s 2.5% increase in light vehicle unit sales for September
points to a gain for the auto dealers component which makes up 15
percent of total retail sales.
Growth at auto parts chains is trending in the mid-single digits
with growth at used car dealers trending in the low double digits,
rounding out what looks to be a strong motor vehicle component.
Gasoline sales look to be soft given soft prices and given,
according to government data, a decline in demand. Note the decline in
demand, down to 9.1 million barrels per day vs. 9.4 million a month ago,
is a telling indication of consumer weakness especially given the
softness in price.
This weakness is seen in the core ex-auto ex-gas category. In
August, sales exceeded guidance. Indications available so far for
September suggest that sales are trending back toward guidance.
Clothing & accessories, hit by a soft and heavily marked down
back-to-school season, are showing particular weakness for September as
is the nonstore group, which is a big group that makes up 10% of the
ex-auto ex-gas category.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
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