–April-To-March Indications Flat To Soft

By Mark Pender

NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s retail trade index fell nearly 2 points in
the April 17 period to 58.0, well above break-even 50 to indicate
significant year-on-year growth but nevertheless pointing to the risk of
month-to-month moderation, according to Market News International’s
weekly survey.

Total sales for the sample slipped 1 tenth to a year-on-year +5.0%
with same-store sales down 3 tenths to +3.3%. Income fell 13 percentage
points to +28%. These totals are unadjusted.

The sample, extending estimates and trends over a four-week rolling
basis, is likely inflated to a significant degree by the Easter shift in
March.

As more information comes in for April, sales rates are almost
certain to decline given this month’s negative Easter effect, which
again pulled holiday sales out of the month. Sample size for the latest
period is 132 chains consisting of 107,000 retail locations.

This sample’s April targets remain at +3.0% for year-on-year total
sales and +1.5% for same-store sales. These results would point to a
flat to slightly negative comparison with the robust strength of March.

Last week’s Commerce Department totals for March would have been
even greater based the initial adjustment set. The month’s adjustments
were significantly beefed up to pull out at least as much as $1 billion
from the month’s total, which came in at an adjusted $363.2 billion.
Note the Commerce Department holds its complete adjustment set close to
the vest, offering the public only a limited look.

Despite the Easter calendar effect, the initial set of published
adjustments for April are only marginally favorable, which is another
negative for the month. Key components are fighting especially tough
April adjustments including food services and building materials.

Comparatively soft pricing may also be a negative for April. In
prior months, the sample had benefited from low inventories and limited
markdowns. Citing consumer demand for value, discount-chain
Duckwall-ALCO (254 stores – DUCK) is adding lower priced goods to its
selection.

But there is still wide strength in the sample. Boating supply
chain West Marine (WMAR) reports recovery in demand for bigger-ticket
items including boats, motors and electronics. The 334-store chain, hard
hit during the recession, is also benefiting from the closure of a
competitor, Boater’s World.

Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.

** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **

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