By Mark Pender

NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index rose more than two
points in the Oct. 16 period to a 58.1 level that reflects still solid
growth yet slowing growth compared to prior periods, according to Market
News International’s weekly survey released Monday.

Guidance remains very cautious pointing to deceleration through
year end to very low single digit growth. Current levels, when adjusted,
point to a month-to-month -0.5% headline for the October retail sales
report.

Retail sales pivoted higher in September according to last week’s
Commerce Department report where on-year growth moved to the mid to high
single digit area in contrast to the sagging low single digit growth of
this sample.

The government’s retail sales total of $367.7 billion for September
is a new high for the cycle, edging out the April high of $366.0
billion. The April to September period marks a sizable crater in the
sector’s recovery slope.

This sample also hit its peak in April but has yet to climb back.
Total sales are at +3.0%, down two tenths in the period, with same-store
sales at +1.3% for a sixth straight decline.

Below is a run of company commentary.

Sequential sales growth slowed in the September quarter for
close-out home accessory chain Tuesday Morning (840 stores TUES).
Average tickets are down and the chain said consumers continue to hold
back on discretionary items.

Sales have broken lower for privately held restaurant chain Dave &
Busters, dropping from low positive to low negative. The 57-store chain
sees its performance as consistent with the overall economy.

In contrast, sales at Japanese chain Benihana (97 restaurants BNHN)
are suddenly taking off, up in the mid single digits. The chain, which
isn’t mentioning the economy, attributes its success to marketing and
promotions.

Price deflation is moderating at supermarket chain Spartan (97
stores SPTN) which now reports modest levels of cost inflation for some
products. Sales contraction at the Michigan-based chain is stable, in
the low to mid single digits.

Sales remain flat at Pennsylvania-based supermarket chain Weis (164
stores WMK). The chain said consumers remain cautious.

September-quarter sales, at an on-year +2.6%, came in below
expectations at boating supply chain West Marine (328 stores WMAR). The
chain said the boating equipment market has softened.

Income is at +11%. Sample size in the latest period is 93 chains
making up 80,500 retail locations.

Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.

** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **

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