By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index edged back about one
point in the Nov. 6 period to 59.0, a strong reading that points to
solid October-to-September gains, according to the results of MNI’s
weekly survey.
Total sales are unchanged in the period at +4.1% with same-store
sales slowing slightly to +2.2%.
Indications point to a +1.0% print for next week’s October retail
sales report. Ex-auto is indicated at +0.7% with ex-auto ex-gas at
+0.5%.
Trailing data in the sample are softening and highlight the risk of
downward revisions to September and August. A downward revision to
September would give the October comparison a boost.
Motor vehicles are the leading component with indications on both
used cars and auto parts showing even more strength than the month’s
four percent unit rise for new sales. Gasoline should get a lift from
higher prices.
Out of the ex-auto ex-gas group, the two biggest components are
showing strength: food & beverage and general merchandise. Among the
smaller components, clothing is up.
A number of chains raised earnings guidance last week, and there’s
talk of price strength appearing. Yet guidance on sales is not
strengthening and several chains, where sales are particularly weak, cut
earnings guidance.
Income is an on-year +7%, the weakest reading since January. Sample
size in the period is 189 chains for 141,600 separate retail locations.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
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