By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade sample points to
measurable weakness for Wednesday’s retail sales data from the Commerce
Department, according to the results of Market News International’s
weekly survey.
MNI’s index did rise 2.2 points in the July 10 period to 60.7 but
the four-week average of 57.7 is seven tenths lower than the four-week
comparison for May.
Total sales are at +3.2% year-on-year, down slightly from May,
while same-store sales, at +2.6%, are unchanged from May.
When adjusted, the results point to a -1.0% headline for total
retail sales. This sample points to -0.5% headlines for both ex-auto and
ex-auto ex-gas.
The key for the economic outlook is less the comparison with May
and more the comparison with April and March. If sales do dip in June,
April would appear to be the peak of the retail recovery with March
showing the peak in acceleration.
Such a result would deepen questions over the consumer’s
participation in the recovery.
Revisions of course could scramble the comparisons. By dollar
total, this sample points to total June adjusted sales of $358.9 billion
vs. Wall Street’s median estimate for $361.8 billion and May’s yet-to-be
revised Commerce total of $362.5 billion.
Flat to lighter traffic is a common complaint as is the need for
markdowns. Income in the sample is now at a year-on-year +15% vs. +29%
this time last month.
Sample size for the July 10 period is 89 chains consisting of
69,800 retail locations.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
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