Morgan Stanley says Fed could cut to near-zero in a year

Morgan Stanley on the Fed

• US-China trade tensions may lead to Fed to lower US rates near zero by Spring 2020
• US-China tensions may tip US economy into recession in 2020, 'depending on policy support'
• US-China trade relations may knock S&P 500 down towards 2400, 10-year yields to 1.75% this year
• Dollar initially higher against risk-sensitive currencies on trade war, but lower later

These comments are all conditional but point to an ugly outcome if it all goes badly. The question I always ask is: what's a trade war? Are we in one now, or do we need 25% tariffs on everything and retaliation? There's also plenty of gray area in between.