Friday is the first look at Q2 US GDP
The consensus is for 4.2% growth but Trump reportedly told an associate it will be 4.8%.
Morgan Stanley says its latest tracker is at 4.7%.
"Our latest tracking suggests that GDP surged by 4.7 per cent quarter over quarter annualized in 2Q, which would be the fastest quarterly pace since 1Q 2006 ... the outsized number in part reflects a rebound following a disappointing 2.0 per cent pace in the first quarter, which was likely depressed by residual seasonality issues ... net trade and inventories together are contributing about 2.2 percentage points to headline GDP - nearly half of the growth we are estimating. We find evidence that the hefty contributions from these two categories is likely a reflection of stockpiling ahead of the implementation of trade tariffs. "
They say to watch out for a 'sell the news' reaction to the report, because few believe this is a sign that growth will be any more in the longer term than 2.5%.
Other tracking estimates:
- JPMorgan 3.9%
- Barclays 5.2%
